The probable impact on the processing industry during the three months affected severely (March, April and May) will be a reduction of almost 18% compared with the same period in 2019, with a more accentuated decline, of over 35%, for the manufacturing of textile products and apparel, leather and the automotive industry.
”It is estimated a severe slowdown in the economic activity in the second quarter of (-14.4%), with the quarterly profile outlining a V-shaped evolution, but without returning to the situation in the winter scenario (the absence of the coronavirus), followed by an actual recovery in the fourth quarter. The scenario is based on a negative economic impact limited in time, around four months (from March to June), expecting a partial extension in July-September, starting from China’s experience which shows signs of recovery after four months.”
During the peak period of the pandemic, services will have a negative contribution of 9.3 percentage points to the GDP dynamic, being followed by the industry (-3.9 percentage points), per the Finance Ministry document.
Services will be impacted mostly in the segments of real estate transactions, hotels and restaurants, recreational activities, transportation and maintenance services.
Romania’s GDP grew by 2.4% in unadjusted data and by 2.7% in seasonally adjusted data, in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019, a flash estimate from the country’s statistics institute INS showed last Friday.
Before the Covid19 pandemic, the Romanian Government estimated a 4.1% economic growth for 2020, higher by six percentage points than the level predicted following the coronavirus.