The anticipations component slid 10.5 points to 40.7 points, while the current conditions one dropped 9.5 points to 33.3 points.
“In the context of the oil crisis and global risk aversion on international markets, inflationary expectations, as well as nominal interest rates increase ones went up. At the same time, economic growth estimates for the current year decreased,” says Adrian Codirlasu, president of CFA Romania Association.
The anticipated rate of inflation for the 12-month horizon (April 2027) went up to 7.61%, 1.72 percentage points above the previous month level. Around 47% of survey respondents expect an inflation acceleration, while 37% see a potential decline.
At the same time, the three-month ROBOR index is forecast at 6.40% in the next 12 months, above the current 5.78% level.
Around 86% of respondents expect the local currency to weaken in the next 12 months, while 14% anticipate a stagnation. The average EUR-RON exchange rate is seen at RON5.1303 for the next 6 months and RON5.1644 for the next 12 months.
Economic growth expectations for 2026 were downwardly revised to an average of 0.7%, signaling economic stagnation. In parallel, the budgetary gap forecast for next year rose by 0. percentage points from the previous survey, to 6.6% of GDP.
Public debt is expected toc limb to 63% of GDP in the next 12 months.
As regards the housing market, 55% of respondents expect a price stagnation in major cities in the next 12 months. At the same time, 90% consider current levels as overvalued, while only 10% see them as accurately aligned with economic fundamentals.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)