According to the study, the system will be overloaded during the period by the retirement of workers born during the population increase of the late ’60s and early ’70s, when the communist regime decided to ban abortions.
The study, made by Romanian Academy member Vasile Ghetau, also predicts that Romania’s population will drop to 16.1 million by 2050, from the 2016 estimate of 19.7 million, only from reasons of demographic decline. The decline could be steeper due to migration.
“If in 2016, about 17% of the population was retired, this number will grow to 29% in 2050. If in 2015, the dependency percentage was of 28%, it will grow to 50% by 2050. This will put great stress on the public pensions system (…) The professor did not take into account migration, only a negative birth rate. If we add migration, the graph looks even worse,” said CFA Romania chairman Adrian Codirlasu.
The organization proposed legal solutions to motivate potential mothers, through increased benefits in work leave and paid maternal leave, to curb the decline.
However, migration will remain one of the biggest challenges, as high numbers of Romanians settle in other EU countries and never return.
“Once they are set there and have children who enter that country’s education system, it will be very hard for them to return, and Romania will be a foreign country for these children,” said the CFA Romania chairman, who offered migration from other countries towards Romania as a possible solution.