In seasonally adjusted data, Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) was 2% lower in the second quarter of 2026 versus the same period of 2025.
The preliminary data for the second quarter of 2026 show a slight improvement against the beginning of the year, considering that the annual decline rate shrank from 1.2% in the first quarter of 2026 to 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026. The country’s economy, however, did not return to growth and the combined result for the first six months of 2026 remains negative.
In the first half of 2026, the country’s GDP edged 0.8% lower in unadjusted data and by 1.6% in seasonally adjusted data compared with the first half of 2025.
The European Commission’s spring forecast predicted economic growth of just 0.1% for Romania in 2026, a figure that the Romanian government has incorporated into its latest calculations. Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare has recently told Ziarul Financiar (ZF) daily that the forecast for the whole 2026 remains at 0.1% but whether this level is achieved depends on how the economy performs in the final two quarters of 2026.
Romania’s central bank governor Mugur Isarescu stated recently during the presentation of the quarterly inflation report that Romania could avoid a dramatic economic downturn in 2026. “The aggregate demand shortfall is deepening and the short-term outlook for the economy remains subdued. These are the inherent effects of fiscal consolidation. The GDP gap is large, which is positive from an inflation perspective, but less so in terms of economic growth. We are hoping to avoid a dramatic slump; we are likely to see growth close to zero or negative in 2026, but not a dramatic recession.”