The pharmaceutical market reached 11.75 billion lei (EUR2.6 billion) in 2013, up 0.3% (below the initial 0.7% prognosis), according to data provided by market research company Cegedim Romania. However, the first quarter of 2014 brought weak, lower figures, which made the company revise the initial projections both for this year and for the medium term.
Thus, Cegedim expects the pharmaceutical market to register a slight contraction this year, with this as the first decline projection the research company launches.
The lack of additional funds from authorities and of moves to introduce new products on the list of reimbursed drugs, is being felt in sales of drugs, 60% supported by the state.
Overall, more than 130 new products are set to be introduced on the list of reimbursed drugs this year.
On the medium term, the prognosis related to the average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) points to 3.7% (downwardly revised from 4.8% at the beginning of the year).
“The outlooks for the Romanian market remain positive, with a CAGR of 3.7% for 2015-2019. In a normal scenario, 2014 and 2015 should be years of a moderate performance, followed by three years with growth rates of around 5%. Afterwards, the market will continue to expand at a pace of below 5%, should no special conditions emerge,” said Petru Craciun, general manager of Cegedim Romania.
Should the forecast materialize, the market will reach EUR14 billion in 2019, with drugs released on a basis of a prescription set to have an 82% contribution and OTC drugs a 14.7% one. The rest to 100% is accounted for by sales through hospitals.
As no new drugs were added to the list of reimbursed drugs and as drug makers pay the clawback tax, a rising number of companies have shifted to OTC drugs, generating higher growth on this segment. The tendency is set to maintain in the following years.
The drug market has in recent years been distorted by parallel exports. Imports cover the largest part of the pharmaceutical market and Romania’s largest producer, Terapia, in 2013 generated revenue of EUR113 million (including exports). Most Romanian drug plants are controlled by multinationals and the Romanian state owns a single production unit, Antibiotice Iasi.
However, 2014 will see the exit of a multinational from production, after GSK announced it renounced the Europharm plant of Brasov for which it is seeking a buyer.
In the first quarter of this year, the leading position on the pharmaceutical market was held by Roche, which climbed onto this position in 2013, outrunning Sanofi.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)