This situation occurred sooner than most analysts had anticipated and current projections point to a lingering downward trend toward the end of 2026.
On Tuesday (April 28), the national currency traded at RON5.0937 per euro.
The leu last surpassed the psychological threshold of 5.10 units to the euro in May 2025, when it touched a record low of RON5.12 against the euro.
The leu also lost ground against the US dollar on Wednesday, reaching 4.359 units, down 0.54 against Tuesday’s level of 4.354 units.
The minority government of Romania’s pro-European Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan could fall in early May 2026 after his former coalition partner, the leftist Social Democrats, and the far-right opposition submitted a no-confidence motion on April 28. The coalition’s collapse raised the prospect of weeks or months of policy deadlock that could put pressure on Romania’s debt yields, credit ratings and access to European Union funds as talks are held on a new parliamentary majority.
Social Democrat ministers quit the government last week, but the reform-minded Bolojan refused to step down, saying the government had vital reforms to implement to tap more than EUR10 billion ($12 billion) worth of pandemic recovery and resilience funds before the EU’s August deadline. Romania must also further lower the EU’s largest budget deficit – to 6.2% of economic output in 2026 from over 9% in 2024 – or risk losing its investment grade rating. Romania’s largest employers’ association Concordia said on April 28 that losing the rating would cost Romania RON100 billion ($23 billion) in higher debt costs over five years.
While the Social Democrats (PSD), the parliament’s biggest party, without which a pro-EU majority cannot be attained, have repeatedly said they are willing to rejoin the same pro-European party cluster with a different prime minister, the other parties have said they will not collaborate with the PSD again.
The PSD has teamed up with the hard-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) for a no-confidence motion but the party’s leader has denied any plan to collaborate with AUR beyond the May 5 no-confidence vote.
If Bolojan survives, he will still need to seek a new confidence vote within 45 days, when the mandate of the interim replacements for the PSD ministers who have quit expires. If the government collapses, centrist President Nicusor Dan, who nominates the prime minister, is widely expected to attempt to rebuild the four-party pro-EU coalition with a different Liberal or a technocrat as prime minister.