Analysts expect a quarterly contraction of 0.2% to 0.3% in January through March. However, they project an economic growth rate of 1% to 1.4% in the first quarter compared with the year-earlier period.
“Our growth forecast for the first quarter is of 1.4% compared with the same period of 2011. However, we estimate the economy declined by around 0.3% in January through March from the previous quarter,” said Dan Bucsa, chief economist with UniCredit Tiriac.
Bucsa said the first-quarter growth was largely fueled by domestic demand, as better-than-expect retail sales more than offset a negative contribution from industry.
RBS Romania’s economist Catalina Molnar said in turn that the available data for the first months of 2012 indicate the economy has shrunk in the first quarter from a quarter earlier, due to weaker performance in industry, constructions and services.
“In annual terms, however, we estimate a growth of around 1% in the first quarter,” Molnar said.
Romania’s largest bank BCR forecasts a quarterly economic contraction of 0.2% in January-March. The annual growth rate is expected at around 1.3%.
“Household consumption has had a positive contribution to the economic growth, but the industry was hurt by low demand in external markets,” said Florin Eugen Sinca, analyst at BCR.
The statistics institute INS is due to release first-quarter GDP data on Tuesday.