“Fitch’s base case remains that Romania will follow the path agreed with the IMF and the EU, including the fiscal targets for 2012,” Fitch’s analyst Gergely Kiss told Mediafax.
Romanian Prime Minister Emil Boc stepped down earlier Monday, following weeks of street protests against austerity measures aimed to reduce the country’s budget deficit and anchor the economy, which was severely hit by the global financial crisis.
President Traian Basescu named justice minister Catalin Predoiu as interim premier.
“The key event in Romania will be the parliamentary elections later in the year,” Kiss said.
Fitch’s analyst estimated the new government is likely to stick to the path agreed with the IMF and the EU, but warned that the country remains exposed to spill-over risks from the eurozone, limiting the new government’s room to maneuver.
Separately on Monday, Moody’s analyst Atsi Seth said that Predoiu’s appointment as interim prime minister suggests the authorities are prepared to continue the reforms initiated by the former government.
“If that happens, it would be neutral from a rating perspective, since our base case is that despite political fluctuations Romania’s policies will remain broadly in line with the IMF/EU/World Bank agreements,” Seth told Mediafax.
“Our main concern is with policies rather than the specific composition of government,” he added.
Seth said Moody’s has been monitoring the political situation in Romania since protests began 3 weeks ago and will continue to do so.
“We will closely monitor policies and their implementation in coming weeks and months,” he said.
Fitch has Romania on a “BBB-” rating, with stable outlook, while Moody’s places the country in the “Baa3” category, also with stable outlook.