“The main unknowns (in 2015 i.e.) are the final structure of the listed of reimbursed medicines and the feasibility of cost-volume contracts. Against the backdrop, we maintain our 1.8% growth prognosis, in lei,” said Petru Craciun, general manager of market research company Cegedim Romania.
According to the company’s latest estimates, the drug market posted a slight increase, by 1.5%-2%, in 2014, on sales of drugs related to cold season illnesses. These were the ones that toward yearend managed to reverse the 0.3% decline initially forecast by Cegedim.
About the prognosis for 2015, Petru Craciun says there’s nothing clear about a new updating of the list of reimbursed medicines. Also, for some prescription drugs, the National Health Insurance House (CNAS) wants to negotiate cost-volume contracts (through which producers offer product quantities for free or discounts).
As over 60% of the pharma market is represented by reimbursed medicines, all pharma managers are having their eyes set on whatever decisions the Health Ministry will make about reimbursed drug lists.
Dan Zamonea, general manager of Roche Romania, says the trend of this field will depend on the budget the state is set to earmark for drugs. Thus, should this not go higher, there will be no growth by value for the market. “I do not expect the market value to rise by more than 2-3%,” considers Zamonea.
2015 comes after a random trend of the market in 2014, which started with a decline in the first quarter, says Zamonea quoting Cegedim data, followed by growth in 2Q and a resettling of the health system in the third and fourth quarters.
“Market growth (in 2Q i.e.) came amid the increase registered by the OTC and generic drug segment, while the market of original drug further stagnated,” said Zamonea.
2014 will remain in the history of the pharma market as a year of expectation, with nothing remarkable happening except marginal growth, manager replacements and the partial updating of the list of reimbursable drugs.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)