Last year’s economic growth stood at 2.5% and it remains to be seen whether the Statistics Institute will adjust it, too, over the coming years.
The govenrment decided to revise the 2012 economic growth forecast to 1.7%, only three months into the year. The new estimate, however, remains optimistic compared with the bankers’ estimates who see it at somewhere around 0.5% or 1%.
The adjustment of the estimates of the National Forecasting Commission is in line with the trend manifest at the beginning of this year to reduce forecasts about economic growth considering the international context and the slowdown of foreign trade.
This year’s budget was built around a 1.8%-2.3% growth, which begs the question how realistic the expectations of revenue growth are considering the economy will not perform as well as expected.
If the economy slows down a great deal in 2012, this would visibly reduce chances of a 7.5% increase in revenue compared with 2011 and the chances of attaining a budget deficit of 1.9% of GDP (cash) and of less than 3% of GDP (ESA methodology) – which are already really bold as they are, even for an economic growth similar to 2011 (2.5%).
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)