The commission kept its forecast for the 2018 average exchange rate at RON4.65 to the euro, unchanged from its spring prognosis, and also revised up the inflation projection.
The commission has maintained its average exchange rate projections at RON4.62 per euro in 2019, at RON4.60 to the euro in 2020 and at RON4.58 versus the euro in 2021, respectively.
The annual average inflation rate was revised up, to 4.7%, for 2018, from a previous projection of 2.8%. It is seen dropping to 2.8% in 2019 (from a previous projection of 2.5%) and to 2.5% in 2021 (from a previous projection of 2.4%).
It revised down its gross domestic product growth forecast to 5.5% for 2018, from a previous projection of 6.1%, but has maintained its GDP growth projections for 2019, 2020 and 2021 at 5.7%, 5.7% and 5.0%, respectively. The commission also expects a GDP growth of 5.0% in 2022.
The country’s current account deficit is expected to widen to 3.1% in 2018. The gap is seen at 2.8% in 2019, at 2.6% in 2020 (from a previous projection of 2.5%), at 2.3% in 2021 (from a previous projection of 2.4%) and at 2.1% in 2022.
The commission has also maintained its unemployment rate forecast, envisaging a rate of 3.8% in 2018, of 3.7% in 2019, of 3.4% in 2020 and of 3.5% in 2021.