“Why only 1.6% economic growth next year, or even less? Because wages went up too slowly compared with revenues during the time of economic growth and the purchasing power is on a continuous downward path, and in the first six months of next year I don’t expect a purchasing power rise by more than 5% or 6%. Wages and foreign investments will not rise significantly, either,” said on Wednesday night Misu Negritoiu, chairman of ING Bank, at the ZF Gala, at the launch of the seventh edition of the “Top 100 most valuable companies in Romania” compiled together with investment boutique Capital Partners.
Managers are quite reserved when it comes to investment decisions for next year, as they are waiting to see where the economy is heading.
The optimism of Romania’s main creditors – the IMF, the EBRD, the European Commission – who expect economic growth of over 2%, contradicts the managers who run the most valuable companies, who prefer to forecast lower growth, around 1%. Even the 1% growth is considered good, given that predictions for the EU, Romania’s main trading partner, are not very optimistic.
Despite the fact that parties’ election messages are aimed at boosting Romania’s competitiveness by granting incentives to certain sectors, business people say a sustainable economic growth cannot rely only on agriculture and tourism.
“Traditional engines are out of steam. It is ridiculous to believe agriculture and services will get Romania out of the woods. I think if Romania has the courage to look closely to new energy technologies (such as deepwater drilling) – it will more likely find the key to its rescue,” said Doru Lionachescu, chairman of investment boutique Capital Partners.
Constantin Toma, owner of Romet Buzau, says not a lot of good things can be expected in the future because the economy is becoming more and more influenced by politics.
“We have to realize that there is not much future to speak of in Romania unless we have a strategy for the industry, not just for agriculture and energy,” Toma said.
(English version by Daniela Stoican)