In the April-June period, the gross domestic product expanded 0.5% in real terms from the previous quarter.
Preliminary unadjusted data showed the economy declined 0.6% in the July-September quarter from the same period of 2011. In seasonally adjusted data, the annual decrease was 0.8%.
Analysts estimated an economic decline of 0.4% to 0.6% in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, due to weak performance in agriculture and constructions.
For the first nine months of 2012, Romanian GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.2%, INS said. The adjusted data showed the economy expanded 0.4% in January through September.
In spite of the weaker-than-expected performance in the first nine months, local analysts are optimistic about growth for the full year, considering the authorities have managed to keep the budget deficit at comfortable levels so far.
Raiffeisen Bank’s chief economist Ionut Dumitru estimates a GDP growth of 0.2% to 0.3% in 2012, but warns of downward pressure from exports.
ING Bank Romania also maintains its forecast on a modest growth in 2012, despite a possible contraction envisaged for the fourth quarter.
“The state’s expenditure usually increases in the fourth quarter. However, since the budget deficit was flat at 1.2% of GDP in October, the authorities have additional funds of around 1% of GDP for the last two months of 2012, which could help support the economic growth,” said Mihai Tantaru, economist with ING Bank.
Romanian authorities expect economic growth will slow to around 1% in 2012, from 2.5% a year earlier, hurt by a feeble harvest and falling exports to European markets.
The International Monetary Fund, Romania’s main foreign creditor, estimates the country will post a modest growth in 2013 as well, following delays in EU fund absorption and slow implementation of structural reforms.