The current scenario provides for a reconfiguration of the trajectory of the main macroeconomic indicators following the statistical results in the first half of 2025, the impact of the budgetary adjustment measures included in Romania’s first package of fiscal measures, effective from August 1, 2025, especially the increase in indirect taxes (VAT and excise duties) simultaneously with the adjustment of costs with pensions and staff in the public sector, and following the decision to liberalize electricity prices, which are hypotheses that were not considered in the previous forecast, the Commission explained.
The real GDP growth was revised downward by 0.8 percentage points (from 1.4% to 0.6%), mostly as a result of a slow evolution of private consumption, while the GDP deflator was revised upward (+1.3 percentage points), being impacted by an increase in average inflation (+2.2 percentage points).
On a medium term, the Commission anticipates a 1.2% economic growth rate in 2026, but sees the annual average growth rate nearing 2.5% in 2027-2028 period.
The Commission emphasizes that estimates remain, however, cautious, considering the possibility of implementing additional fiscal measures that can impact affect investment plans in the private sector. Thus, an annual average growth rate of 3.2% is anticipated for the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and of 1.9% for private consumption.
Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3% in unadjusted data in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period of 2024 and by 1.4% in seasonally adjusted data, provisional estimates from the country’s statistics office INS showed on Sept 5. In the second quarter of 2025, the country’s GDP expanded by 0.3% in unadjusted data and by 2.1% in seasonally adjusted data against the second quarter of 2024.