The annual inflation rate is seen at 7.7% at end-2021 and at 4.7% at end-2022, from the levels of 5% for end-2021 and of 3.1% for end-2022 envisaged in the commission’s August forecast.
The commission also kept its forecast on the average exchange rate, at 4.92 lei to the euro in 2021 and at 4.98 lei per euro in 2022.
The average net salary is estimated at RON3,467 per month in 2021 versus RON3,417 lei in the commission’s summer forecast, and at RON3,775 per month in 2022. The real salary forecast was cut to 2.7% for end-2021 from 2.9% previously, and to 2.2% for end-2022 from a previous projection of 3.4%.
The unemployment rate was revised upwards to 5.3% from 4.8% estimated in the August forecast.
The trade deficit (the gap between exports and imports) is seen widening to EUR23.5 billion, from EUR20.8 billion in the commission’s previous report. The current account deficit is expected to reach 6.3% in 2021 versus 5.5% in the summer forecast.