The new forecast on Romania’s 2018 economic growth is way below the previous projection of 6.1% in April and January, respectively.
Nevertheless, the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at RON949.6 billion, up nearly 0.49% versus the projection in July. Thus, the Romanian government has the chance to fall within the 3% budget deficit limit.
Romania’s general consolidated budget posted a deficit of RON16.8 billion, or 1.77% of the gross domestic product (GDP), in the first nine months of 2018, according to finance ministry data. The 2017 budget deficit was 2.9% of the GDP, the economic growth was 6.9%, and the nominal GDP was RON858.7 billion.
In its autumn forecast, the prognosis commission also corrected the GDP growth projection for 2019, at 5.5%, from 5.7% announced in the previous three projections made this year. The nominal GDP is estimated at RON1,022.5 billion, higher than RON1,017.5 billion in July.
Instead, for 2020 and 2021, the forecast was maintained at 5.7% and 5%, respectively. Also, the same projection of 5% was also maintained for the GDP growth in 2022.
The commission also recalculated the nominal GDP for 2020, at RON1,101 billion, from RON1,095.6 billion projected in July, and for 2021, at RON1,178.6 billion, from RON1,173.3 billion projected previously. Also, the nominal GDP for 2022 is estimated at RON1,261.5 billion, higher than RON1,255.9 billion projected in July.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised downwards its forecast on Romania’s economic growth to 4% in 2018, 1.1 percentage points below the 5.1% level estimated in its April report, against the backdrop of a moderation of fiscal stimuli, the IMF said in the October edition of its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.
The European Commission lowered its economic growth projection for Romania to 3.6% for 2018 from a previous forecast of 4.5%, it said in its fall economic forecast released Thursday, November 8.