“Due to the restrictions imposed by the authorities to contain the spread of COVID-19 in March 16-30 gross domestic consumption in the National Energy System was 5.5% lower than in March 1-15, 2020. The decline was partly offset by the bad weather, as the average temperature in the country was 1.7 degrees Celsius lower in the second half of March 2020 than in the first,” the officials of grid company Transelectrica say.
The company also says that gross domestic consumption in the national energy system was about 4.8% lower in March 16-30 than in the year-ago period.
This month and May could come with some 10% decline in power consumption, similar to the months in 2009, one of the darkest years for the Romanian economy, when the GDP dropped 8% due to the global crisis.
Even so, Transelectrica remains optimistic, so its worst-case scenario is built around an about 5% decline for the entire year.
“Depending on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic, we can estimate about 2% to 2.5% decline in 2020 if the pandemic ends in the first half of July and a 4.5% to 5% decline if the coronavirus crisis extends into the rest of the year. In the first scenario, the gross power consumption could drop to the 2016 level and in the most difficult scenario in terms of power consumption it could reach about the 2015 level.”
An estimate is very hard to provide, and it all depends on how the COVID-19 pandemic develops and how it is felt in the economy, Transelectrica says.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)