According to an in-house survey of the Romanian Association of Financial and Banking Analysts, the central bank may wait until 2014 to resume its monetary policy easing, which was halted in May this year.
Moreover, the analysts expect the central bank will maintain the minimum reserve requirements unchanged at 15% for Romanian leu-denominated liabilities and at 20% for foreign currency liabilities.
The central bank has cut its main rate by 75 basis points to 5.25% in several steps this year, but a government collapse late April halted the monetary easing cycle. The decision was also influenced by a worsening external environment as the eurozone plunged deeper into the sovereign debt crisis.
The central bank targets an annual inflation of 3% at the end of 2012, plus/minus one percentage point around the band. The bank revised upward its year-end forecast to 3.2% from 3%, citing a less favorable base effect than previously estimated.
In September, the annual inflation rate stood at 5.3%.