The new list will likely bring producers sales of above EUR110 million, according to drug industry managers’ estimations. The list should be submitted to the government for approval in late January and be implemented in March.
Another segment that might show a good battle this year is the OTC drugs’ market, with a rising number of companies announcing plans to strengthen their foothold in this field.
“For domestic pharmaceutical companies, 2014 will be the year of major changes. The entire health sector will start operating on new pillars, starting from new premises,” said Dan Zamonea, general manager of Roche Romania.
“The basic package, the new products to be added on the list of reimbursed drugs, the health card, the clawback tax, the strategy for 2014-2020, all these initiatives will modify the framework within which not only the pharmaceutical market, but the entire health sector, will operate this year.”
Almost 70% of the drug market is supported by the state and hence all eyes are on the ministry and the budget of the National Health Insurance Agency.
“I believe the market will expand, at a higher pace than in previous year, owing to the updating of the long-awaited list. By 2016, Romania is expected to boast the third highest growth rate of the pharmaceutical market in Europe, with the average increase to range between 6%-9%,” said Jacopo Murzi, managing director of Janssen, the pharmaceutical market of Johnson & Johnson.
His company projects sales growth for this year, but the manager did not specify the estimated increase.
The drug market, among the most dynamic fields in the past, remained flat in 2013 at around EUR2.6 billion, according to the latest estimates of research firm Cegedim.
For 2014, Cegedim forecasts a growth of 2.7% growth in local currency. In February, the company is set to announce whether it changes this estimation or not.
“The domestic pharmaceutical market will see limited growth given that the budget earmarked in 2014 for compensated drugs is the same as in 2013. The increase of the market may come, though, from out of pocket sales,” Zamonea said.
He predicts sales will rise by 3-4% in 2014.
The market is likely to register a “perverse evolution”, believes Dragos Damian, chief executive officer of drug maker Terapia Ranbaxy. He says there may be an increase in the average value of a sold unit on the disappearance of cheap drugs and the sale of expensive ones.
“We’ve cementing our position on OTC segment and the oncology market,” said Damian about plans for 2014, as the company estimated 9% revenue growth.
All industry managers are discontent with the low predictability degree in the market, which erodes its appeal.
“Romania is seen as a country with a high growth potential on the pharmaceutical market, but the biggest flaws are the lack of continuity of healthcare strategy and the frail financial sustainability of the healthcare system,” said Elena Mitova, general manager of Novartis for Romania, Ukraine and CIS.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)