The central bank’s signal has not translated into lower interest rates on loans for non-bank clients so far, even though the ROBOR on the interbank market has visibly gone down, especially over the last month.
Bankers use the ROBOR decline to gain more from margins. Under the circumstances, a number of analysts are talking about problems in translating monetary policy into interests, and consider the channel via which this should be done as “altered”.
“There is a problem with the interest rate volatility on the internbank market. An essential step is to make sure interbank rates are predictable. The history of the last few years shows us that interbank interests are actually the outlet of the forex market,” commented Radu Craciun, chief investment officer with Eureko Pensii. “The exchange rate stability can be explained by the interest rate volatility on the interbank market. Things are completely different in other countries.”
The monetary policy rate cut could be passed down to bank customers faster if the instruments the central bank uses to inject cash into the market had longer maturities, believes Dan Bucsa, chief economist of UniCredit Tiriac Bank.
Analysts had seen the central bank’s decision coming, as a result of the inflation decline and of the higher risks of an economic slowdown this year.
The central bank managed to attain its inflation target in 2011 for the first time in five years and some analysts believe it may do it again in 2012.
BNR appears to be determined to encourage lending and the economy but the real interests are still much higher than those for euros to be able to talk about a fast significant impact of these cuts. The impact of the central bank’s decision on the exchange rate should be neutral, analysts think.
Analysts expect the central bank to continue the monetary policy relaxation process, as such a strategy is necessary for loans in lei to become cheaper.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)