Czech Republic, forced by the speculator attacks and the ultra-relaxed monetary policy in the euro zone, might get into this game, too, bringing debate over negative interest rates, which mean really cheap loans but worthless bank deposits close to Romania.
Bank deposit interest rates in Romania are already discouraging, hence the question how low they will go. Will they go below zero? Analysts ZF interviewed say they will not, that they will only get there in case of a really serious crisis.
“Prior to the crisis, Romania got EUR20 billion a year in foreign capital in 2004-2008, and most of it went to banks. We took some money from the savings of other countries. Now lending has only one source: the deposits made by Romanians with local commercial banks,” believes Adrian Vasilescu, strategic consultant with Romania’s central bank.
Economic analyst Dragos Cabat concurs: “Inflation is in negative territory indeed, and will probably stay there for the rest of the year. However, we are talking about a decision with a significant psychological effect, which banks should make in order to shift to negative interest rates for deposits.”
Andrei Radulescu, senior economist with Banca Transilvania says that the negative interest rate scenario can only be considered in Romania if a new global crisis occurs, with a profound effect on the consumer and investor sentiment. The likelihood of that happening is low at the moment, he added.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)