Analysts’ economic growth forecasts range from 2% to 3.5% for 2014, after Romania’s GDP surged 3.5%, putting the country among those with the highest economic growth in Europe after Latvia.
On the other hand, Moody’s warns that a downward pressure on the rating would emerge if there was a reversal in recent fiscal consolidation, a decline in competitiveness and a worsening of balance of payments metrics.
Moody’s, the only major rating agency that kept Romania’s rating at investment grade during the crisis, decided to change the rating outlook from negative to stable, because of the reduction of the current account deficit and lower risks to growth and balance of payments from euro area.
Moody’s affirmed Romania’s Baa3/P-3 (long-term/short-term) government bond ratings and only upgraded the rating outlook from negative to stable. The key drivers of the outlook change were its expectation that the improvement in Romania’s macroeconomic indicators in 2013 will be sustained and a decline in risks to Romania’s growth and external financing outlook, owing to a recovery in the euro area, with which Romania has strong links.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)