Opinions vary when it comes to the US dollar, with some expecting a reversal of the trend of the exchange rate to less than 4 lei to one dollar, while pessimists see it at RON4.4 to one dollar.
Romania having two sets of elections, local and parliamentary, this year should not put pressure on the exchange rate this time, considering it has a technocratic government in place. The domestic currency therefore should be influenced by international rather than domestic trends.
“The euro/leu exchange rate will remain under the impact of international rather than domestic developments, like it did in 2015. 2016 elections should not be a reason for additional volatility, as long as the messages of the political scene retain the economic strictness,” Radu Craciun, chief economist of Romania’s largest lender, BCR, told ZF.
Romania’s currency saw a two-digit decline against the US dollar, 13%, as well as against the Swiss franc, while losing only 0.9% against the euro in 2015.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)