In a Reuters interview, Fitch Ratings said Romania has made progress enforcing IMF-backed reforms, but still faces “significant risks to the downside.”
The agency will keep Romania’s sovereign rating to below investment grade for now, but will watch to see how things develop this year,” said Douglas Renwick, director of EMEA Sovereigns at Fitch Ratings.
According to ING analysts, the authorities in Bucharest are likely to meet budget deficit targets for 2011 and the progress on reforms will be acceptable for both the IMF and EU.
“Therefore, we expect to see at least a change in outlook from “stable” to “positive” late this year or early next year. In addition, we do see a high likelihood for a rating upgrade in 2012, provided the fiscal situation continues to improve,” ING said.
Fitch and Standard & Poor’s rate Romania BB+ with a stable outlook, while Moody’s rates it higher at ‘Baa3’.