Most analysts expect industry, one of the main drivers of the economy, to have a lower contribution to the gross domestic product this year, so investments should be encouraged in order to help the economy. Industry now contributes around 27% to the GDP.
Some analysts expect industrial output to return to negative territory in the first quarter of the year, after more than two years of uninterrupted growth.
In November, industrial output grew by 3.2% against the same month of 2010 in seasonally adjusted data, with a similar increase only recorded in June, after the two-digit growth rates recorded earlier in the year.
The slower rise of industry towards the end of 2011 was anticipated by analysts, due to the European turmoil, with rises being less significant than in the first half of 2011 and 2010.
“The industry is clearly growing at a slower rate, especially the manufacturing industry, which is mainly dedicated to exports. This gives credit to the notion that industrial output will have a much weaker contribution to economic growth this year. It will probably halve, because we estimated that industry would grow by 3%-3.5% year-on-year in 2012,” says Melania Hancila, chief economist of Volksbank.
The manufacturing industry, the leading sector of industry, recorded its third consecutive decline – with the growth of industrial production being largely the result of the good performance of the energy sector, say ING Bank analysts. The trend suggests that a contraction could follow in the first quarter of this year, according to ING analysts.
(English version by Daniela Stoican)