According to the report, it would be the first time since 2008 that Romania’s economy has outpaced Poland’s. This would be mainly due to a slowdown in Poland’s economic growth rate. In its April report, the IMF estimated a 3.2% GDP growth for Poland and a 3% GDP growth for Romania, figures which were revised to 2.1% for Warsaw and at 2.5% for Bucharest.
The IMF has kept its forecasts on Romania’s economic growth to 0.9% for 2012 and 2.5% for 2013, which were previously unveiled at mid-August during the fund’s sixth review of Romania’s economic program under a EUR5 billion precautionary loan agreement.
Poland, in turn, is expected to post an economic growth of 2.4% in 2012 and of 2.1% in 2013, according to the Global Economic Prospects 2012 report. Romania last outranked Poland in terms of economic growth back in 2008, the year in which the global financial reached its peak, when Romania’s economy grew by 7.3%, compared to Poland’s 5.1% economic growth.
Romania’s economy, however, contracted for two consecutive years, by 6.6% in 2009 and by 1.6% in 2010, while Poland’s economy kept its upward trend, growing by 1.6% in 2009 and by 3.9% in 2010, respectively. In 2011, Romania’s economy grew by 2.5% and Poland’s grew by 4.3%.
At European level, the IMF expects a mere 0.1% economic growth in 2012, and a 0.4% contraction in the eurozone, following the sovereign debt crisis. The fund estimates the European economy will grow by 0.8% in 2013.
Emerging Europe, in which the IMF also includes Romania, was severely affected over the past year by the financial crisis in the eurozone.
The Romanian government estimates the economy will expand by 1.2% in 2012, largely fueled by domestic demand and steady performance in industry.
In April 2011, Romania and the IMF signed a two-year precautionary loan agreement, successor to a EUR20 billion bailout package received during 2009-2011. The new deal is supported by a EUR1.4 billion precautionary loan from the European Union and a EUR400 million credit line from the World Bank.