According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, Romania’s economy will rise by 2% next year and only reach a 3.5% growth rate by 2018.
The IMF’s forecast for Romania’s 2013 growth rate is similar to that of the Romanian authorities, the rate that Romania’s budget is based on.
The IMF has not updated GDP growth rate for 2012 with the 0.7% rate announced by the Romanian Statistics Institute at the beginning of April, instead it has kept the previously announced rate of 0.3%.
The IMF has also cut its growth forecast for the global economy by 0.2 percent, to 3.3%, this year, while for the euro zone it anticipates a 0.3% GDP decline. The economies of Italy, Spain and France, Romania’s main trade partners, will decline this year.
The most upbeat forecast for Romania’s economy comes from the largest Swiss bank, UBS, which expects 2.8% GDP growth. US giant JP Morgan has improved its growth forecast for Romania’s economy from 1.5% to 1.9% this year.
Local bankers are more pessimistic, with most forecasts indicating a rise of 0.5-1.6% for 2013.
The IMF anticipates an average inflation rate of 4.6% in Romania this year, a current account deficit of 4.2% of GDP and an unemployment rate of 7%.
(English version by Daniela Stoican)