The paradigm change to be expected after a change of power is not yet fully apparent and it is not yet clear when the announced projects will take place.
Few concrete things have taken place these last few months: the agreement with the IMF will be kept, but there are delays in the restructuring, privatization area, and as far as taxation is concerned, extraordinary measures cannot be expected overnight.
“They tried to come up with a change in terms of VAT on invoice payment, with mixed results [at the Finance Ministry they are now talking about making VAT on invoice payment optional]. The economic measures have been rather tentative, we are still waiting to see what will happen with the restructuring of the state sector, privatizations, new listings. This is the big problem – the restructuring of the state sector,” says economist Radu Craciun, deputy manager of Eureko Pensii.
Has the time been too short for the political program through which USL won a comfortable majority in Parliament to start to be fully put into practice?
Not necessarily, says Cristian Pirvan, secretary general of the Romanian Business people’s Association (AOAR): “The problem is that every day we discuss all sorts of issues: party problems, who elects whom – but there is almost no talk of the economy. However, apart from levying tax on unpredictable profits, something that had to be regulated somehow (a supplementary tax was introduced on energy companies’ one-off profits) and VAT payment when the invoice is paid instead of when it is issued (a measure taken last year) I don’t see anything budging in the economic area.
The government’s political program provided for expanding the taxation base and for lowering taxes. But while the government has expanded the taxation base, it has no plans to cut taxes.
Radu Craciun says it is an illusion to believe that taxes would be cut in the short term because then emerges the issue of state revenues:
“It is a good thing that they are seeking to rein in deficits. What the state goes on to do with the money is a political matter – it can choose to spend it on social programs or for investments.”
Restoring wages in the public sector and adjusting pensions for inflation are measures that the Government has taken as it promised to do, but for the rest of the measures included in the government program plans are not yet fully outlined.
“We have not seen any measure that gives us hope that the economy will grow even by the 1.6% predicted,” says Pirvan.
Economic analyst Aurelian Dochia has an explanation for this state of affairs:
“The lack of a clear idea, the fact that strategy elements have not been outlined has to do with the fact that talks surrounding the distribution of positions in the government have been complicated and used up energy. On the other hand, from what has been done one can anticipate what will happen in the future – firstly the agreement with the IMF will be retained (which will keep Romania within certain parameters), on the other hand there is a slight tendency to redistribute the taxation system [additional taxes on extraordinary revenues] which shows us there is a governance philosophy going in this direction.”
(English version by Daniela Stoican)