Ionut Dumitru, chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank and chairman of the Fiscal Council, says the lender is about to change its GDP growth forecast to 3.5% in 2014. BCR, the largest bank by assets has already revised it from 2.3% to 3%, according Eugen Sinca, chief analyst of the bank. ING Bank, too, is considering improving its economic growth forecast.
Local analysts have so far expected a slowdown in the GDP growth in 2014. The average of their estimates was 2.3%, with the economy driven again by an increase in export demand and gradual rebound of domestic demand.
The economy grew by 3.5% last year, taking everyone by surprise and exceeding even the most optimistic estimates of analysts and authorities. This was the highest GDP growth in the last five years, placing Romania among the European countries with the highest economic growth. However, the real GDP is not back at the pre-crisis level yet.
February came with good news from most economic indicators, after the positive trends in the first month of the year.
Industrial output, one of the most important indicators of the economy, increased again in February by 9% on the year-ago month. Industry, which accounts for about one third of the GDP will remain one of the growth drivers of the economy this year.
Exports went up by 12% to EUR4.3 billion in February and by 9.2% in the first two months.
Whereas the economy grew by 3.5% on the back of exports and agriculture in 2013, the first few months of this year show consumer spending, too is making a contribution to this year’s GDP growth. Retail sales, the most important indicator of consumer spending, were up 9% in February on the year-ago month (unadjusted figures). Consumer spending showed the first signs of rebound last fall and surged in December and the first two months of 2014, a good sign for the entire year.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)