In August, industrial output climbed 7.4% compared to August last year in data adjusted for the number of working days and seasonal factors, after June and July rises had been of 3.2% and 5% respectively.
“Strong August industrial output data favors our call of accelerating growth in the third quarter of 2011. Romania’s August industrial output figures are supportive (sustaining our call that growth accelerated through the third quarter of 2011) and so is ING’s forecast for the German figures,” believes Vlad Muscalu, ING bank economist.
Analysts have anticipated that industry, which over the last few months had slowed down its growth rate because of turmoil on European markets, will have a favorable impact in the third quarter.
Industry and agriculture lifted GDP growth in the second quarter of 2011. Most analysts said the good agricultural output will help reach the 1.5% economic growth target this year, with industry set to have a lower impact in the second half of the year amid the slowdown of Western-European economies.
GDP growth slowed down in the second quarter, recording just 0.2% compared to the first quarter, after a 0.7% rise in the first three months of the year.
Industry was in the second quarter of 2011 the sector with the largest increase in the volume of activity, up by 4.9% compared to the second quarter of 2010. But compared with the first quarter, industry fell 0.4% in seasonally adjusted terms.
Industrial output and exports have pursued an upward trend in the past year and a half, and managed to support the economy, although the growth rate significantly slowed down amid lower external demand due to the debt problems in Europe.
In the last two years, the industry has increased its contribution to GDP through exports – which managed to offset the decline of domestic demand, and remains the main driver of the economy. Unfortunately, industry contributes around 27% of the GDP, so it cannot act as the sole driver.
(English version by Daniela Stoican)