“The consumer outlook is very varied throughout Europe when it comes to assessing how their country’s economy will develop in the coming months. While hopes for economic recovery have risen quite noticeably in some countries, they have stalled or even been crushed further in others,” reads the GfK Consumer Climate Europe and USA for the first quarter of 2013.
According to the survey, the highest indicator values are registered in Austria and Germany (both 0.6 points), followed by Romania (-13.6 points). The most negative outlook regarding economic improvement was reported in Portugal (-43.4 points), France (-41.6 points) and Greece (-36.9 points).
“Romanians are generally taking an optimistic view of the future. Economic growth is rising while unemployment is dropping. At present, the European Commission reports that 6.7 percent of Romanians do not have a job. This is one of the lowest rates in Europe and a substantial rise is not expected in the medium term, at least. A greater number of jobs leads to rising income in the population. This is clearly reflected in the income expectations indicator, which is currently at -5.36 points. When compared with the previous year’s value (-22.7 points), it is clear that the situation on the labor market has changed considerably over the last 12 months,” reads the document.
Countries where consumers are confident their income will remain stable or will increase in the upcoming period include Germany (29.4 points), Austria (7.6 points) and The Czech Republic (-3.3 points). On the other hand, the countries with the most pessimistic consumers regarding their income in the future are France (-57.9 points), Italy (-51 points) and Portugal (-50.8 points).
The most willing to buy are Germans (36.2 points), Austrians (18.2 points) and Bulgarians (10.9 points). Portuguese, Italian and French consumers are among the most cautious when it comes to spending money.
Romanians are somewhere in-between the two categories.
Inflation could become a problem over the next few months in Romania, notes the survey. “According to the European Commission, it is currently 3.8 percent, but experts are anticipating an increase to 4.6 percent this year. Food prices, in particular, will be driving prices upwards in the first half of the year. Energy prices are also set to rise further over the coming months and years as a result of deregulation on the energy market.”
The countries moving towards recovery are mainly in Northern and Eastern Europe, while the next year will again be difficult for the countries in the South and West, GfK said.
The survey polled consumers in 12 European countries and in the United States.