Nicolae Albu, investment manager at Erste Asset Management, expects the BET index to reach 5,000 points at the end of 2012 (up 27%), and sees the BET-FI index at 25,000 points at the end of this year. As for the asset allocation, he recommends a moderate structure: 25% in leu-denominated deposits, 35% in leu-denominated bonds, 10% in gold and US dollars, and 30% in equity.
“I expect bonds to perform well. It will be a tough fight for the funding of European banks, which will offer interesting opportunities, given the high spreads and the fact that some of them are even safer than countries. The reduction of financing from parent banks will put pressure on local subsidiaries to find their own financing, which will in turn put pressure on the interests they will offer at the beginning of the year, making it a good time to make such a placement.”
Dan Nicu, general manager of BRD Asset Management, does not supply a BET target for the end of the year, but recommends a conservative asset allocation: 45% in deposits, government securities, leu-denominated money market funds, 30% in foreign currency-denominated deposits, government securities, bonds, monetary funds, 10% in gold and merchandise, and 15% in stocks and equity funds.
“The performers of the equity market in 2012 will be shares in the energy, utility and financial sectors.”
Dan Popovici, investment manager at OTP Asset Management, sees a BET index at 5,000 points (up 15%), and the BET-FI index at between 22,000 and 23,000 points (a rise of between 14 and 19%). His asset allocation is also a conservative one. He recommends that 35% of assets be invested in deposits, government securities, bonds, leu-denominated monetary funds, and 45% in foreign currency-denominated deposits, government securities, bonds and mutual funds. 10% of the assets should be invested in gold and commodities, and 10% in shares and equity funds.
“As for the trend of the equity markets, I think international exposure can be a much better approach than one limited to the local market. However, there are several Romanian companies currently being traded at significant discounts to their real value (FP, SIFs) and which, if investors are less risk-averse, can perform well.”
As for Gabriel Goia, investment manager at BT Asset Management, he expects the BET index to reach 5,200 points at the end of 2012, up 20%. His BET-FI target for the end of the year is 25,000 points, up 29%. Goia recommends that investors place 30% of their assets in leu-denominated deposits, government securities, bonds and money market funds. 30% should go to deposits, government securities, bonds and monetary funds in foreign currency, and 40% to shares and equity funds.
“The best-performing sectors in 2012 on the stock exchange will be the energy and the financial sector.”
Florin Dolea, general manager of Pioneer Asset Management, predicts that the BET index will reach 4,500-5,000 points (a rise of between 4 and 15%). He recommends a conservative distribution of assets – 50% in leu-denominated deposits and government securities, 20% in foreign currency corporate bonds and 30% in share and equity funds, especially on external markets.
“In terms of stock exchange performers in 2012, I would bet in particular on FP, SNP and TGN.”
Andreea Gheorghe, general manager of Intercapital Investment Management, expects the BET index to rise 15% this year, to around 5,000 points and the BET-FI index to surge 25%, to around 24,200 points. She favors a moderate asset distribution: 20% in deposits and money market funds, 20% in bond funds and in instruments with a fixed income, 5% in USD (foreign currency, funds), 15% in gold (funds, ETFs), 40% in shares and equity funds.
“Investors should focus more on companies that will pay high dividends in proportion to the trading price, such as SIFs, the FP and companies in the energy sector. With such an investment, investors can combine a quick yield through the dividends paid with long-term capital gains, considering the long-term growth potential,” she comments.
Marius Olteanu, executive manager at SIRA, does not provide a BET target for the end of the year, but recommends a moderate asset allocation. 20% in lei, 40% in US dollars, 10% in commodities, 10% in shares and 20% in energy.
“On the stock exchange, the energy sector will be the performer of 2012. It will be a very volatile year, with speculative opportunities on intermediary trends.”
Cristian Mortoiu, assistant portfolio manager at KD Investments, sees the BET index at 5,500 points at the end of this year (up 27%), and the BET-FI index at 20,000 points (up 3-4%). He recommends a moderate investment structure – 30% in leu-denominated deposits, government securities, bonds, and money market funds, 20% in US dollars and yen, 15% in gold, palladium and platinum, and 35% in shares and equity funds.
“2012 will favor companies with a lower indebtedness level, major cash generators and payers of high-yield dividends – companies in the energy, extraction sectors, as well as companies in sectors with inelastic demand – food (both food retail and farming activities) and prescription drugs.”
(English version by Daniela Stoican)