The shares with chances of being the year’s performers are those in the energy and financial sector. Last year fund managers’ forecasts were proven right, with the BET index rising 18.7%, while BET-FI climbed over 30%.
2013 has the potential to be a year of rises for the stock exchange, according to the mutual fund managers consulted by ZF.
The first few days of 2013 support this estimate as the BET index rose by 7% in the first four trading sessions, taking its cue from optimism on external markets. In 2012 the BET index rose 18.7% and the BET-FI index of the five regional investment funds SIFs and of Fondul Proprietatea (FP.RO) rose by a surprisingly high 31%.
“Equity markets, particularly European ones, are expected to be one of the right investment solutions for 2013, with interest rates being extremely low on international markets,” said Dan Popovici, investment manager of OTP Asset Management.
He estimates the value of the BET to range between 5,700 and 5,800 points at the end of 2013, which corresponds to an around 12% annual rise, and expects a value of 27,000 to 28,000 points, for the BET-FI index. The manager believes stock exchange performance will be fuelled in 2013 by an improvement in foreign investor sentiment:
“Considering the commitments made by the new political establishment that took over after the December 9 elections to continue fiscal consolidation policies, as well as to sign a new arrangement with the IMF, I think foreign investor appetite for Romanian financial assets will rise over the course of 2013.”
Popovici says the biggest interest will be for leu-denominated government bonds, whose good performance could be supported on the one hand by introducing them into a Barclays bond index and possibly in the future into a JP Morgan bond index.
Another factor that could support leu-denominated government bonds would be a prospective upgrade in Romania’s country rating by S&P.
“Once Romanian bonds become more visible for ‘frontier market’ fund managers, some companies listed in Bucharest could also become attractive for them.”
The opinion is shared by Razvan Rusu, investment manager of Certinvest, who expects the BET and BET FI indexes to rise 15% in 2013.
“I think we will have a positive sentiment at global level, which can translate into higher global exposure to equity and lower exposure to fixed-revenue instruments whose yield is very low.”
Gabriel Goia, investment manager at BT Asset Management, expects a 7% rise for the BET index and a 10% rise for BET-FI.
The most optimistic ones are Andreea Gheorghe, general manager of Intercapital Investment Management and Cristian Mortoiu, investment manager of KD Investments, with the two managers expecting a 20-25% rise for the BET-FI index in 2013.
Last year the same managers made their predictions for 2012 and the one who made the most accurate predictions was Gabriel Goia, who bet on a 20% rise for the BET index (which rose 18.7%) and a 29% rise for BET-FI (the actual rise was 31%).
As for the shares and sectors tipped to be the best performers this year, fund managers have rather similar opinions. The shares of OMV Petrom (OMV.RO), of Transgaz (TGN.RO) and the shares of Fondul Proprietatea are rated as favorites.
“I expect shares in the energy sector or with exposure to this sector to be the best performers amid the start of the liberalization process. (…) I don’t rule out financial companies or companies with exposure to the financial sector if the portfolio and spending restructuring prove fruitful and the market looks optimistically at these measures,” Cristian Mortoiu said.
“First of all Petrom shares. The company is expected to announce solid annual financial results, which will result in a positive trend of the price of listed shares.
The shares of some of the SIFs should also be of interest for local investors, but their trend will be influenced on the one hand by financial reports and on the other hand by the vested interest that will emerge in the fight within their boards of directors,” Dan Popovici said.
Gabriel Goia of BT Asset Management predicts the performers of the market in 2013 will be shares in the banking and oil sectors.
Apart from equity, managers expect rises in the price of gold and of oil, as well as an appreciation of the US dollar.
Despite being optimistic about the trend of stock exchange indexes, the managers don’t share the same optimism in terms of listings, expecting no more than one or two in 2013.
(English version by Daniela Stoican)