The macroeconomic confidence index of CFA Romania rose to 54.5 points in March after having dropped to 48.6 in February and having reached 60.7 points in December 2013.
Even though the perception of the current state of the economy in terms of business environment and labor market deteriorated, figures show a greater confidence in a cycle longer than one year, and come at a time when the 2014 economic growth forecast is about to be revised from 2.2% as officially announced towards and average of 3% to 3.5%.
As a result of the slight rebound in consumer spending shown in statistics starting from December 2013, business people, too, are becoming more optimistic because they can see their business grow.
“We did feel an improvement ourselves, too. Sales went up 7% in the first quarter on the year-ago period. Growth is largely because of exports, considering 33% of production is exported compared with 23% last year,” said Gheorghe Bodea, general manager of meat processor Ave Impex Satu Mare.
Ave Impex Satu Mare is one of the top ten companies on the fowl market, and its annual revenue stands at some EUR25 million.
Cornel Danila, general manager of Covalact, one of the leading dairy producers in Romania, too, said the business he runs saw an increase in volumes sold since the beginning of the year, but believes the growth is because of an improvement in the operations of his company rather than because of consumer spending.
This means May 15, when the National Statistics Institute is due to announce its first flash estimates about the first quarter economy performance will be more eagerly awaited than ever: will the significant economic growth trend of 3% to 5% be confirmed?
Although they expect an improvement in Romania’s economy, no analysts canvassed by CFA expect inflation to keep decreasing over the next twelve months; 78% of them see it to going up, while the rest see it flat.
Most analysts also forecast an increase in both short and medium-term (five-year maturity) bank interests. Most analysts (57%) also see the leu losing ground against the euro over the next twelve months and only 13% see it appreciating.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)