The exports were also what drove Romania out of the crisis, but with the slowdown of western economies, their contribution is no longer as certain as it used to be.
Export potential is limited, considering the low share of exports in the gross domestic product, about 30%, and the expected slowdown of the EU economies. It remains to be seen whether the government comes up with new measures to stimulate exports in 2012.
Exporters demanded predictability and stability of the fiscal and labor legislation from the authorities, as well as guaranteed stability of the exchange rate.
After increases of 30% to 50% in the first five months of 2011, the growth pace slowed down to 11%-12% in June and July and reached 16% in October.
To compensate for the reduction in exports to European Union some analysts recommended that Romania expand to markets outside the EU, but this is a process that takes a lot of time and is affected by the fierce competition in terms of manufacturing costs.
Exports to non-EU countries started to gain ground in the second half of the year, and increased by a higher rate in some months than the trade with EU members. The net volumes exported remain lower, though. The share of exports to non-EU countries rose to 30% of the total by the end of 2011.
Exports in the first ten months reached EUR37.6 billion, up 23.5% compared with the same time in 2010, and imports totaled EUR45.3 billion, up 18.5% on last year.
The National Association of Exporters and Importers (ANEIR) estimates exports went up by 20% to EUR45 billion in the whole year, while imports increased by 17% to EUR55 billion. Whereas the trade balance deficit stood at EUR9.5 billion in 2010, it should reach EUR10 billion in 2011.
The top ten exporters contributed 20.7% of the total exports this year.
The year’s main exporters were Automobile Dacia, Nokia – which closed its plant in Jucu (NW Romania), Rompetrol Rafinare, Renault Industrie, Petrotel Lukoil, Honeywell Technologies, Samsung Electronics, Petrom, ArcelorMittal Galati and Celestica Romania.
Romania’s exports will be negatively affected by the decision of Nokia to leave, as the company was the second largest exporter after Dacia. Still, despite accounting for 5% of exports, Nokia’s added value to the formation of gross domestic product was not that high, merely 0.2%.
The country had over 17,500 exporting companies in the first nine months of 2011, down from 18,700 in the previous year, according to ANEIR data.
Exports have been on the rise since the fall of 2009, and were positively influenced by the central bank’s policy to keep the exchange rate stable.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)