The Romanian economy grew for three consecutive quarters, but after two years of struggling to come out of recession.
However, it would have taken only EUR300 million for the GDP to return to a decline. Industrial production and exports, which have been on an upward trend in the last year and a half, were the drivers of the economy, although the growth rate visibly slowed down amid weak external demand in the context of debt problems faced by Europe.
The annual growth recorded in the second quarter, 1.4%, that external markets and rating agencies look at, has, however, been a pleasant surprise, considering that modest gross domestic product (GDP) figures were announced in Europe, showing that economic recovery remains slow.
The Financial Times wrote that Romania’s results on Tuesday amounted to the only pleasant surprise in the region in terms of economic growth, which exceeded expectations.
Disappointing figures came from Germany and France, the largest economies in Europe. Germany’s GDP grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter of 2011 against the previous quarter, with the optimism of industry producers dwindling because of financial market turmoil, while the French economy stagnated in the same period.
For the second half of the year, prospects and risks related to the economy are balanced: while a good agricultural year will have a positive impact, the deterioration of external demand, as a result of the debt crisis, could negatively affect the economy.
According to analysts, the favorable base effect and the good agricultural year could lead to a 1.5% economic growth in 2011. Industry will remain the biggest contributor to GDP growth, though with a lower share.
(English version by Daniela Stoican; Editing by Radu Bostan)