Between 2010 and 2060, population is estimated to rise in fourteen EU states and fall in thirteen. The strongest population growth is projected in Ireland (+46%), Luxembourg (+45%) and Cyprus (+41%), and the sharpest declines in Bulgaria (-27%), Latvia (-26%), Lithuania (-20%), Romania and Germany (both -19%).
In 2060, the share of the population aged 65 or more is forecast to range from 22% in Ireland and 25% in the United Kingdom, Belgium and Denmark to 36% in Latvia, 35% in Romania and Poland and 33% in Bulgaria, Germany and Slovakia.
The old age dependency ratio in the EU bloc is predicted to double by 2060, meaning that there will be only two persons aged 15 to 64 for every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to one in 2010.
The ratio is projected to be 60% or more in Bulgaria, Germany, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, and 45% or less in Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom, Eurostat said.
By comparison, the old age dependency ratio in the EU ranged between 10% and 19% in 1960, meaning that there were between five and ten persons aged 15 to 64 for every person aged 65 or more.