Buoyant private consumption supported domestic demand and imports, while export growth remained subdued. A gradual recovery in external demand, easing of financial conditions and resilient private consumption and investment are set to accelerate growth above 2% in 2025 and in 2026.
Headline inflation is projected to decelerate slightly, but to remain above 5% in 2024, as underlying price pressures are still high due to the continued increase in disposable income. Strong labor demand is set to further reduce unemployment.
Romania’s general government deficit is forecast to reach 8% of GDP in 2024, much higher than in 2023. It is expected to stay broadly at that level in 2025 and 2026, assuming no change in current policies. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase to close to 60% in 2026.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)