The Commission also sees Romania’s economy growing 1.1% in 2026.
“In 2025, real GDP growth in Romania is set to slow down to 0.7% after reaching 0.9% in 2024. Political and fiscal uncertainty impacted private consumption in the first half of the year, whereas the adoption of fiscal consolidation packages over the summer is set to further reduce disposable income, while public consumption should decline,” the Commission said in its Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast . “A moderate recovery in gross fixed capital formation as well as resilient exports, are expected to support the economy.”
Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is seen to pick up only slightly to 1.1% next year as the full effect of the large fiscal consolidation measures in combination with still elevated inflation is expected to lead to a small contraction in private consumption while public consumption is also forecast to drop further, the EU executive said, cutting its previous projection of 2.2% growth in 2026.
Economic growth is then expected to accelerate to 2.1% in 2027, as the pace of fiscal consolidation eases.
Inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is projected at 6.7% in 2025, up from 5.8% on average in 2024, after HICP inflation jumped to 8.6% in September due to the elimination of the cap on electricity prices for households and the hike in VAT and excise duties earlier this year. HICP inflation is seen to decline to 5.9% in 2026, in line with weak private consumption and strong disinflationary base effects, and to 3.8% in 2027, the Commission said.
Romania ended the capping of electricity prices on June 30, after the government extended the scheme for three more months beyond its previous end-point of March 31. For natural gas prices, the scheme was extended by one more year.
“The removal of the cap on natural gas prices in March 2026 is likely to slow the disinflation process. In a similar way, the entry into operation of ETS2 [Emissions Trading System 2], if not delayed, is expected to stoke up inflationary pressures in 2027 and defer the return of HICP inflation within the central bank target (2.5 ±1 pp.) to the end of the year,” the Commission noted.
After peaking at 9.3% of GDP in 2024, mainly driven by rapid expenditure growth, Romania’s general government deficit is projected to decline by more than 3pps, and reach 5.9% of GDP in 2027, reflecting the adoption of several packages of fiscal consolidation measures since the end of last year, per the forecast.