The figure is down from around RON70 billion in gross funding needs forecast for this year.
So far in 2013, Romania sold debt worth RON46.06 billion in leu-denominated notes and EUR1.57 billion at four euro-denominated auctions on the local market.
The finance ministry also tapped international markets for $1.5 billion at a US dollar-bond sale in February and raised another EUR2 billion at two Eurobond sales in September and October, respectively.
“The ministry’s strategy to extend maturities of leu-denominated bonds issued on the domestic market and to control borrowing costs bore fruit and we now see a more balanced distribution of government debt in future years,” the Austrian bank said in its report.
It said the average residual maturity of RON-denominated and EUR-denominated bonds issued on the domestic market increased to 2.2 years in August 2013, from 1.7 years in August 2012.
Additionally, the investor base widened significantly in 2013 and non-residents owned 22% of RON-denominated bonds and bills in the fall of 2013, up from 6% one year ago.
“A rating upgrade from a major rating agency in late 2014 would support demand from foreign institutional investors, who are gradually putting Romanian fixed income instruments on their radar screens,” the report noted.
Erste estimates Romania’s central bank will keep its main lending rate unchanged at 4% in 2014, while lowering the minimum reserve requirements for leu-denominated liabilities.
“We do not rule out another 25 basis points cut in the key rate in January, but the chances of seeing the key rate below 3.75% are slim.”
The Austrian lender expects the central bank’s monetary policy will influence mostly the short end of the yield curve, while the long end “will be dominated by external events like the possible FED tapering and domestic developments, such as the political landscape.”