The Group’s revision comes after Romania’s statistics board INS on Wednesday confirmed the country’s annual GDP growth of 6.5% in the first quarter of 2022.
“The quarterly growth profile is in line with the rapid estimate published on May 17 but deviates from previous GDP releases due to a change in the model used by the INS for seasonal adjustment. Therefore, our review of real GDP growth is significant. We are revising our economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 5.1% in 2022. Next year’s economic growth could slow to 4.0% compared to our previous estimate of 5.7%,” Erste analysts said in a report released on June 8.
The Erste report shows that the real GDP was sustained by commerce and services which added 5.9 percentage points to Romania’s annual economic growth rate of 6.5%. In parallel, constructions had a slight positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points, the industry fell by 0.1 percentage points and net taxes added 0.4 percentage points.
The industry, which accounted for over a quarter of Romania’s economy in the first quarter of 2022, had a negative contribution to the GDP evolution.
Relative to demand, household consumption contributed 4.5 percentage points to the 6.5% GDP growth rate, government consumption contributed 1.5 percentage points, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) contributed 0.3 percentage points and inventory modification contributed 0.2 percentage points.