An additional question introduced in the survey refers to expectations about Romania’s being downgraded to junk status. Thus, in line with results, 82% of participants expect Romania to be kept in the investment grade category, while 18% anticipate a downgrade to junk.
“Amid the unsustainable twin deficits, the main short-term risk for Romania economy relates to a downgrade to junk category,” says Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association President.
As regards the anticipated rate of inflation for the 12-month period, it dropped to 4.65% from the 4.85% March value.
In terms of the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 79% of respondents forecast a RON depreciation in the next 12 months, while the rest expect a flat rate. Thus, the average value of anticipations for the 6-month period is 5.0311/euro, with 5.0735 units/euro for the next 12 months.
The state budget gap estimated for 2025 remained unchanged at the average value of anticipations of 7.4% of GDP.
2025 economic growth expectations fell from the previous survey to the average value of 1.0%, with some respondents projecting a possible recession.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 58% in the next 12 months.
With regard to housing prices in cities, 61% of respondents expect stagnation in the next 12 months, while 29% forecast a decline. Also. 74% of respondents consider current prices as overvalued, while 21% say they are accurately assessed.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR index, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is estimated to reach 5.55% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)