In its 2012 Transition Report, the EBRD said Ukraine is the transition country most exposed to potential spillover from the eurozone, with an estimated quarterly output loss of 3.7% after a 1% lower quarterly eurozone output.
Poland, on the other hand, is the least exposed economy, the report showed.
“Romania continues to be highly exposed to negative developments in the eurozone and the summer 2012 political crisis has also had a negative impact on the economy,” EBRD said. “The economy slowed down significantly towards the end of 2011, contracting on a quarter-over-quarter basis in real terms in the fourth quarter, and growth has been minimal in the first half of 2012.”
The bank forecasts an economic growth below 1% in 2012, after an increase of 2.5% in the previous year.
“However, medium-term prospects remain favorable, reflecting the diversified economy and strong catch-up potential in a country where GDP per capita (adjusted for purchasing power standards) is less than half the EU average, according to Eurostat estimates,” the report said.
EBRD revised in October its estimate on Romania’s economic growth to 0.5% in 2012, from 0.8% previously, citing the eurozone crisis, a weak harvest and political uncertainties. For 2013, the bank forecasts a growth of 1.9%, slightly higher from 1.8% initially envisaged.