The results are the best recorded this year and have determined Cegedim to raise its forecast for 2011 to a 6.2% increase. This could see the pharmaceutical market exceed the 10 billion RON (EUR2.4 billion) mark, according to ZF calculations.
“These results show that despite difficulties and dysfunctions, the pharmaceutical market has potential to be revived, firstly because of the significant needs for healthcare services and for drug treatment, so our forecast for the whole of 2011 is modified to a 6.2% increase,” said Petru Craciun, general manager of Cegedim Romania.
The major 13.7% rise recorded in the third quarter compares with a mere 2.8% rise in the first quarter and a 4.4% rise in the second quarter.
However, the big surprise that occurred in the third quarter was the volume growth, of 9.5%, a level not reached between 2009 and 2011 (the period for which ZF has received data).
Non-prescription drugs saw the highest increase – 15%.
Cegedim representatives note the fact that these results were influenced by the weak performance of the third quarter of 2010, amid a reduction in the subsidy cap for most drugs. On the other hand, market sources say most companies wanted to increase their sales before the new clawback tax is implemented.
The Health Ministry started on October 1 to apply a new version of the controversial clawback tax, which first appeared in 2009, but did not produce its effects because of legislative unclearness.
Through the clawback tax, the government charges drug producers for any growth in consumption of the subsidized drugs above the level approved through the beginning-of-the-year budget. The tax applies to all companies, whether they posted turnover increases or declines.
Ioan Nani, general manager of Antibiotice Iasi, says the market increase both in volume and in value was determined by the fear over the new clawback law, considering that most companies sought to increase their exposure while the old legislation is still in force.
“There was talk of the introduction of a clawback tax as of October 1 and most companies sought to increase their stocks,” said Nani. He added that in 3Q there were pharmaceutical companies that ended their fiscal year, so they increased sales during this period.
As for the last quarter, the head of Antibiotice Iasi does not expect it to be weaker, “only if budget allocations are very small.”
In the first nine months, the drug market reached RON7.8 billion (EUR1.85 billion), up 6.9% against the similar period of 2010.
(English version by Daniela Stoican)