“The situation is already bad and without rain it will worsen. Even if drought ends right now, production will still drop 20% to 30%. Without sufficient rainfall by spring, production will be damaged and will fall 70%, businessman Culita Tarata told MEDIAFAX.
In 2010, the agricultural production contributed about 6% to the gross domestic product. The vegetables sector accounted for two thirds of the entire agricultural production, or 4% of the GDP. The production of vegetables increased over 20% in 2011, which is considered an exceptional farming year.
The draft budget for 2012 estimates the economy will grow 2%. A significant reduction of the agricultural production will impact economic growth.
Tarata, who cultivates 65,000 hectares of farmland, believes food crisis is around the corner.
He also contradicts Agriculture Minister Valeriu Tabara, who said recently Romania has wheat reserves for three years.
Sorin Dogaru, director of the Agricultural Department of InterAgro, said crops need over 2,000 cubic meters of water per hectare. He highlighted that three scenarios might occur: the agricultural production will fall 10% to 15% if drought ends right now; if it extends until March, the production of vegetables will decrease 30% and will impact the country’s economic growth and food prices. Inflation will rise.
If drought extends beyond March (the worst-case scenario), spring crops will also be affected, the production of vegetables will decrease 50% and this will be a national catastrophe, said Dogaru.
Viorel Matei, president of the National Federation of Farmers in Romania (FNPAR), said 2012 might be the worst farming year since 1968, when he took up farming.
“The drought affected 80% of the rape production and only 30% to 60% of wheat sprouted,” said Matei.
Even if drought ends now, the production of vegetables will decrease by at least 30% or 35%, he pointed out.
Valentin Zaharia, who cultivates about 1,000 hectares of farmland in Ialomita, southern Romania, said drought this year will reduce the 2012 wheat production by 20% to 30%.
Agricover general manager Robert Arsene sees the wheat and barley production fall by 15-20%.
According to Agriculture Ministry data, agriculture contributed 5.7% to the GDP in 2010, 6.1% in 2009, 6.3% in 2008 and 5.4% in 2007.