“Against this unfavorable background, Romanian companies are likely to deal with a falling demand for exports and a more difficult access to financing, coupled with a weak domestic consumption and a low investment level,” said Cristian Ionescu, Coface country cluster manager for Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia.
Coface left its sovereign rating on Romania unchanged at “B” and estimates the economy would grow by 1% to 1.5% in 2012, after a modest recovery predicted for 2011. Romania has been under a ‘B’ rating since June 2009.
“The only way Romania’s economy will grow in 2012 is if public investments and the absorption rate for European funds increase substantially,” Ionescu said.
Coface expects the average inflation rate will drop to 3.3% in 2012, from 5.8% in 2011, while the leu’s exchange rate is estimated to range between 4.3 and 4.4 per euro.