This is an optimistic scenario, which does not take into account the migration that caused a 2.2 million decline in the number of people who live in Romania, regarded as the second poorest country in the EU, in the last two decades, as shown by the findings of the last census.
The lack of reindustrialization programs, of programs to create new jobs and boost people’s confidence is showing in the economy: Romania’s economy is struggling to increase by 2% or 3% a year, employees earn a net wage of EUR350 per month, while the EU average is somewhere in the neighborhood of EUR1,000 in net amount.
“The biggest problem Romania’s population has is the confidence in the future and the fear of future, of various types of crisis. I am optimistic there will be convergence with Europe, which will gradually drive skilled workers’ wages up to match those in Europe,” says Florin Pogonaru, chairman of the Romanian Businesspeople Association (AOAR). “The biggest problem will be the unskilled people, and one of the strategies could be a well-organized vocational education.”
He admits, though, that it is unlikely that a sales clerk in Carrefour Romania, who makes EUR200 a month would one day make as much as a Carrefour employee in France, who earns EUR1,400 per month.
Whereas the results of the census have been heavily discussed solely from the point of view of the work force migration caused by the industry collapse, the truth is the effects of this economic collapse are compounded by the situation of those who stayed.
Romania risks becoming a citizenless country, as indicated by the demographic projections of professor Vasile Ghetau, head of the Center for Demographics Research of the Romanian Academy.
Young couples are having fewer and fewer babies because of the crisis and job insecurity. On the other hand, the life expectancy is increasing, which will lead to population aging.
Not that Romania would be the only country faced with such a phenomenon, but Western countries started to look for solutions a long time ago and created programs to curb the decline.
Usually birth rate declines when the living standards improve – mothers want to build a career first and then have a baby. While this empirical observation is partly accurate, data show the issue can be fixed with policies. Or else, given its declining economy, Romania should have seen a higher birth rate than the rich EU countries such as France, United Kingdom and Germany. Yet it is not so. Birth rate in Romania was 1.3 children in 2011, down from 1.8 in 1990. A woman has 2 kids on average in the UK, while France drove the rate up to 2.03 in 2011 with the policies implemented as early as the 1980s from the 1.78 in 1990.
That happened because those countries managed to motivate families to have children, thus taking care of the country’s future to a certain extent.
However, Romania, which hardly plans ahead and whose politicians cannot see any further than the next elections, is not doing anything, has not had and does not have any program or intention to implement such a project nationwide. Which is why the demographic projection of Professor Ghetau is so alarming.
There are no programs because the government not only has no interest in such things but also does not have any money, since there are few consistent programs that could help the economy to rebound, boost people’s confidence and generate more money for the budget.
The economy has been relying on exports lately, but they are not reliable, because they depend too much on what goes on on the export markets and domestic consumer spending which should drive an economy like Romania’s is not showing any signs of recovery. Which makes it more and more difficult for other businesses to survive and some even fail.
Moreover, the Tariceanu, Boc, Ungureanu and Ponta governments have had EUR20 billion in European funds available to them and only drew 15% of the entire amount. This is probably the best example of how serious the disinterest of politicians towards the future development of the country is.
The closure or decline in the activity of the major industrial giants in operation since before 1989 along with the loss of tens or hundreds of thousands of jobs was one of the major factors that worsened or even generated the depopulation of Romania. Political parties, however, be they the ruling or the opposition parties, will not discuss such issues.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)