Against the peak reached in 2008, forex market transactions have shrunk by the equivalent of EUR80 billion.
Year-on-year, the decline in nominal terms amounts to EUR27 billion, with 2013 as the third year of the crisis period when the forex market witnesses a fall, after 2009 and 2012. Dealers do not see the market pick up this year, either, and expect the Romanian currency to lose ground.
Volatility grasped the forex market again at the start of this year amid the central bank’s decisions to cut the benchmark interest rate and minimum compulsory reserves.
The exchange rate volatility is inclusively related to the low volume of transactions on the forex market.
For the end of the year, analysts forecast the leu to range between 4.35 and 4.65 per euro. ING analysts have the most upbeat prognosis, of 4.35 lei/euro at the end of December, while Raiffeisen expects 4.45 lei/euro at the end of the first quarter and toward yearend.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)