The fourth quarter brings the first increase in the IRCC after four consecutive declines.
The increase is only 0.01 percentage points, leaving the IRCC well below the peak of 6.06% seen in the second quarter of 2025. Projections indicate a minor rise to approximately 5.59% for the first quarter of 2027.
IRCC is the benchmark index used to calculate variable interest rates for Romanian leu loans granted after May 2019. It represents the average of daily interest rates at which Romanian banks lend to one another on the interbank money market.
The value of 5.57%, applicable in the fourth quarter of 2026, was calculated based on data from the April 1 – June 30, 2026 period. The index calculated for the third quarter will be applied to loans in the first quarter of 2027. Consequently, market changes affect consumer installments with a time lag of approximately six months.
The annual inflation rate dropped from 10.4% in June to 8.2% in July and 6.2% in August 2026, according to data from Romania’s statistical office INS. However, the IRCC value applied starting October reflects interbank interest rates from April to June, prior to this decline.
Romania’s central bank BNR maintained the monetary policy interest rate at 6.50% per annum and revised upward its inflation forecast for the end of 2026, to 6.1% from 5.5%. The trajectory of energy and fuel prices, also influenced by the external context, remains another factor of uncertainty.