The average interest rates in April, May and June 2023 (Q2/2023) point to an IRCC of 5.96%, considering the daily data provided by Romania’s central bank regarding interest rates on inter-bank transactions, and the IRCC value corresponding to this period will be applied to new loans in the fourth quarter of 2023.
For new retail loans with variable interest rate in the first quarter of 2023 the IRCC value was 5.71%, in the second quarter of 2023 it was applied an IRCC value of 5.98%, for the third quarter of 2023 it is used an IRCC value of 5.94%, and for the fourth quarter of 2023 an IRCC of 5.96% will be used.
For now, the IRCC level is lower than the three-month ROBOR index of 6.49%, despite forecasts for IRCC exceeding ROBOR pretty fast. It remains to be seen whether or not ROBOR will go below 6% until the end of 2023 and thus get below the IRCC level. The annual inflation rate is anticipated to drop to 7% toward the end of 2023.
Romania’s three-month ROBOR index, the interbank interest rate used as a reference to calculate variable interests for loans in lei taken out before May 2019, was mostly on a downward trend in the first half of 2023, falling below 7%, and recently below 6.5%, but the pace of decline was slow, despite record liquidity surpluses, of almost RON25 billion in daily average in the first half 2023.
The IRCC is computed at the end of each quarter as the arithmetic mean of the daily interest rates determined for the previous quarter and is enforced by banks for the following quarter.
The IRCC, the reference index for household mortgage and consumer loans, was introduced in May 2019 to better reflect the situation on the banking market.